Brazil needs to accelerate the expansion of its trade agreement network to diversify exports and reduce dependence on major trading partners amid international uncertainty heightened by U.S. tariff policy, which is also opening doors to new economic alliances.
Since returning to the White House in 2025, Donald Trump has pushed a global tariff offensive that reached a new level in July, when the U.S. imposed additional duties on 60 economies, including Brazil, China, India, and the European Union.
As a result, Brazilian exports to the U.S. fell 6.5% year-over-year between January and September.
Despite this, Brazil achieved a record $284.65 billion in total exports during the nine months, up 10.4% compared to the same period in 2025.
The diversification challenge
However, that growth was largely driven by raw commodities and major trading partners like China and the EU, whose purchases rose 12% and 20%, respectively, over the period without marking a broader diversification of export destinations.
Lucas Ferraz, an economist and former Brazilian trade secretary, told EFE in an interview that nearly 70% of Brazilian exports do not benefit from tariff preferences, compared with a global trade average of around 40%.
Ferraz noted that this gap is a broader structural hurdle to diversification, requiring more trade deals.
“What would help most is for Brazil to expand its network of trade agreements (…) and implement reforms that improve the domestic business environment and make Brazilian exporting firms more competitive,” Ferraz said.
According to the World Bank, more than 60% of global trade in the third quarter of 2025 was between nations linked by preferential trade agreements, which “reduces barriers, facilitates market diversification, and provides greater predictability amid geopolitical tensions.”
A good moment for deals
Ferraz emphasized that U.S. protectionism does not reflect a universal trend. On the contrary, the Trump administration’s tariff measures have injected uncertainty into international commerce, driving other nations to pursue new trade partnerships.
“Many countries realize that now is the time to diversify, because diversifying trading partners dilutes geopolitical risk,” said Ferraz, who coordinates the Center for Global Business at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
A key example is the EU-Mercosur agreement, whose trade component went into provisional effect in May after nearly three decades of negotiations. The accord gained renewed strategic significance in the current geopolitical landscape.
Through the Mercosur bloc, Brazil has also expanded its active trade framework this year with agreements with Singapore and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which includes Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein.
New Opportunities
Ferraz stressed that Brazil must leverage current market conditions to move faster.
He highlighted the importance of swiftly concluding ongoing negotiations with Canada and the United Arab Emirates, while pointing to untapped potential in markets such as Mexico, South Korea, Japan, and India.
Furthermore, he advocated for exploring accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) — which includes major economies like Japan, Canada, Mexico, and Australia — rather than relying solely on numerous bilateral talks.
Brazil’s Minister of Development, Industry, Foreign Trade and Services, Márcio Elias Rosa, noted in a statement that “translating trade agreements into tangible opportunities for Brazilian companies” abroad remains a core strategic priority.
“By streamlining procedures and establishing clear rules so exporters can take advantage of these benefits as soon as possible, we expand markets and strengthen Brazil’s global competitiveness,” Rosa added.
To that end, the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil) announced in August a $41.8 million investment plan targeting 5,300 companies across 35 production sectors to boost export diversification. EFE