Statement issued by the company (Announcement)<\/p>\n
INSIGHT FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE<\/b><\/p>\n
Wood Mackenzie<\/b>\u00a0|\u00a0www.woodmac.com<\/a><\/p>\n South Asia\u2019s LNG<\/strong> market faces a major supply shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with regional demand expected to be 2\u20133 million tonnes (Mt) lower through Q3 2026, compared to pre-crisis projections, as countries struggle to replace disrupted Qatari supplies, according to new analysis from Wood Mackenzie<\/strong> that considers a scenario of two months\u2019 supply disruption.<\/p>\n QatarEnergy\u2019s force majeure threatens around 20% of global LNG supply and creates severe supply pressure for South Asian importers<\/strong>. India relies on Qatar for more than half of its LNG imports, while Pakistan sourced almost all of its 2025 LNG imports from Qatar. Bangladesh also depends heavily on Gulf suppliers, with Qatar and the UAE accounting for nearly three-quarters of its LNG imports last year.<\/p>\n Wood Mackenzie previously projected South Asia\u2019s LNG demand would grow by 2.7 Mt (7%) in 2026, but a two-months closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to halt that expansion.<\/p>\n \u201cLNG demand across South Asian markets is now likely to remain flat at best,\u201d said Akshay Gupta<\/strong>, research analyst, gas &LNG at Wood Mackenzie. \u201cWhile the region is highly dependent on LNG from the Middle East South Asian buyers will find it hard to replace disrupted Qatari volumes due to increase competition for available spot LNG cargoes which has pushed LNG prices above US$20\/mmBtu\u201d.<\/p>\n In addition, the lag in oil-indexed LNG pricing formulas means contract prices will rise later in the year. With most LNG contracts linked to oil prices on a three-month lag, import costs for South Asian buyers are expected to increase from June 2026 onwards, adding further pressure to regional energy bills.<\/p>\n According to Wood Mackenzie, India sourced 59% of its 2025 LNG imports (26 Mt) from Qatar and the UAE. The Strait of Hormuz closure could curtail up to 1.45 Mt of LNG deliveries per month, but India might be looking to replace only 50% of the shortfall.<\/p>\n Petronet LNG has declared force majeure to its offtakers, while gas aggregators such as GAIL and GSPC are expected to reduce supply to industrial customers while prioritising gas for essential sectors.<\/p>\n \u201cGas rationing across industries has already begun after aggregators and distribution companies reduced supply,\u201d said Gupta. \u201cEnergy-intensive sectors such as refining, petrochemicals, glass and ceramics are now facing gas shortages that could cut output as switching to oil it\u2019s going to be equally challenging given India\u2019s reliance on the Middle East for oil imports\u201d<\/p>\n Pakistan imported almost all of its 2025 LNG supply (6.6 Mt) from Qatar, leaving the country highly vulnerable to supply disruptions. Pakistan had already cancelled 35 cargoes for deliveries in 2026 because of stagnant demand and increased domestic gas supply availability. Wood Mackenzie estimates that the Strait of Hormuz closure will result in Pakistan reducing LNG demand further, and only half of the remaining Qatari deliveries will be replaced. Gas distributors have already reduced regulated regasified LNG deliveries to prioritise domestic consumption.<\/p>\n To manage the supply gap, Pakistan is deploying a mix of demand curtailment, fuel switching and renewable generation expansion to rebalance the power system, albeit this will take time to be implemented. Operators had previously held back more than 300 mmcfd of domestic gas production to meet LNG contract minimums, and this volume could now be released to help offset lost imports.<\/p>\n Qatar and the UAE supplied 3.6 Mt, or 63%, of Bangladesh\u2019s LNG imports in 2025. The current disruption could result in only half of these volumes being replaced given high spot LNG prices. The supply shock has triggered widespread gas rationing across the economy. Petrobangla has imposed four-hour daily gas supply cuts to CNG stations, reducing road transport demand, while textile and ready-made garment manufacturers face significant production curtailments.<\/p>\n \u201cThe surge in spot LNG prices will place severe strain on Bangladesh\u2019s energy budget, forcing costly procurement while rationing supply to priority sectors,\u201d said Gupta.<\/p>\n You have received this news release from Wood Mackenzie because of the details we hold about you. If the information we have is incorrect you can either provide your updated preferences by contacting our media relations team. If you do not wish to receive this type of email in the future, please reply with ‘unsubscribe’ in the subject header. \u202f <\/i><\/p>\n Wood Mackenzie is the\u00a0global leader in analytics, insights and proprietary data across the entire energy and natural resources landscape. For over 50 years our work has guided the decisions of the world\u2019s most influential energy producers, utilities companies, financial institutions and governments. Now, with the world\u2019s energy system more complex and interconnected than ever before, sector-specific views are no longer enough. That\u2019s why we\u2019ve redefined what\u2019s possible with Intelligence Connected: the\u00a0fusion of our unparalleled proprietary data with the sharpest analytical minds, all supercharged by Synoptic AI, to deliver a clear, interconnected view of the entire value chain. Our trusted team of 2,700 experts across 30 countries breaks siloes and connects industries, markets and regions across the globe to empower our customers to identify risk sooner, spot opportunity faster and make every decision with complete confidence.<\/p>\nIndia faces industrial gas curtailments<\/h2>\n
Pakistan faces severe LNG supply vulnerability<\/h2>\n
Bangladesh forced into costly spot LNG procurement<\/h2>\n
For further information please contact Wood Mackenzie\u2019s media relations team:\r\n\r\nMark Thomton\r\n<\/b>+1 630 881 6885 \r\n<\/b>Mark.thomton@woodmac.com<\/a>\r\n\r\nChris Boba<\/b>\r\n+44 7408 841129\r\nChris.Boba@woodmac.com<\/a>\u00a0\r\n\r\nHla Myat Mon<\/b>\r\n+65 8533 8860\u00a0\u00a0\r\nhla.myatmon@woodmac.com<\/a>\u00a0\r\n\r\nAngelica Juarez<\/b>\r\nangelica.juarez@woodmac.com<\/a><\/pre>\n
About Wood Mackenzie:<\/h2>\n